If your current fantasy roster still even partially resembles the team you drafted, you’re likely in the minority. For the rest of us normal people, I’ll be using a data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’sMLBwaiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure fantasy baseball statistics in regard to control, batted ball quality, and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap gems to grab now before the squares figure it out next week. At the very bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, as well as two-start pitchers and speculative adds.
(Stats are courtesy of our friends at Trumedia and capture action through June 19)
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Here we go…
Starting Pitchers
As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn’t be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are the ability to generate whiffs (first list below) and limit hard contact (second list below). While showing up on one of these two lists may be noise, I’m treating an appearance on both as a signal to immediately pull the trigger.
Available Starters: Multiple >30% Whiff Offerings (min. 25 Pitches Thrown Since May 1)
- Kyle Gibson, STL — Curveball 60.6%, Sweeper 42.4%
- Michael Wacha, KC — Slider 44.4%, Changeup 31.9%
- Tobias Myers, MIL — Changeup 44.0%, Slider 33.3%
- DJ Herz, WAS — 4-Seam Fastball 40.0%, Changeup 35.7%
- Gavin Stone, LAD — Slider 39.1%, Changeup 31.8%
- Mitchell Parker, WAS — Slider 38.1%, Split-Finger 30.3%
- Roddery Munoz, MIA — Changeup 37.9%, Cutter 33.8%
- Dane Dunning, TEX — Changeup 36.7%, Slider 29.5%
- Dakota Hudson, COL — Curveball 33.3%, Slider 29.7%
- Alec Marsh, KC — Slider 32.8%, Curveball 32.6%
Available Starters: <.340 Expected Weighted On-Base Average, Contact-Only (xwOBAcon)
- Cade Povich, BAL — 0.260 xwOBAcon
- AJ Smith-Shawver, ATL — 0.279 xwOBAcon
- Hurston Waldrep, ATL — 0.290 xwOBAcon
- Michael Wacha, KC — 0.297 xwOBAcon
- Adam Mazur, SD — 0.299 xwOBAcon
- DJ Herz, WAS — 0.306 xwOBAcon
- Yonny Chirinos, MIA — 0.315 xwOBAcon
- Luis Medina, OAK — 0.327 xwOBAcon
- Drew Thorpe, CHW — 0.336 xwOBAcon
- Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL — 0.337 xwOBAcon
Hidden Gem: The availability of viable starters on fantasy baseball waiver wires continue to dwindle, so this week I’m letting our lists do the work. The only unaccompanied starter checking every box since May 1 is Kansas City’s veteran lead-baller Michael Wacha. The crafty 32-year-old remains poised to return from the IL this weekend after fracturing his foot when struck by a line drive. Usually not one for injury optimism, I’m actually not too worried about pitchers returning to form from non-arm injuries, and four scoreless innings in a successful rehab start on Tuesday reinforces my confidence. Wacha’s year-to-date surface stats remain underwhelming (4.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and highly unlikely to produce ace-like output — but we also know he’s a perennial quality start machine when the command/control is in check. After tooling around with his pitch mix through early May (throttling curveball and slider usage), Wacha and KC finally decided to go back to the slider as a prominent pitch and immediate success followed. Since a May 4 blowup versus the Rangers, Wacha’s been everything fantasy GMs could ask for from a backend rotation compiler — 5 GS, 30.1 IP, 3 Wins, 2.67 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 25 K, .537 OPS, .257 xwOBA. I’m not going to dig in my heels on Wacha if production starts to go sideways, but in the meantime we’re staring down a potential almost-every-week SP, with a good offense behind him to help rack up those elusive wins.
Available Hitters: >106.5 mph 90th Percentile Exit Velocity (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)
- Jesús Sánchez, OF, MIA — 110.6 mph EV
- Jake Burger, 3B, MIA — 110.0 mph EV
- Brent Rooker, OF, OAK — 110.0 mph EV
- Rowdy Tellez, 1B, PIT — 108.6 mph EV
- Gary Sánchez, C, MIL — 108.6 mph EV
- Elehuris Montero, 1B, COL — 107.8 mph EV
- Jon Singleton, 1B, HOU — 107.3 mph EV
- Zach Neto, SS, LAA — 106.9 mph EV
- Trevor Larnach, OF, MIN — 106.9 mph EV
- Hunter Goodman, OF, COL — 106.8 mph EV
- Brandon Lowe, 2B, TB — 106.8 mph EV
- Rob Refsnyder, OF, BOS — 106.7 mph EV
Available Hitters: <25% Chase Rate And >.385 xwOBAcon (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)
- Enmanuel Valdez, 2B, BOS — 23.4% Chase%, 0.466 xwOBAcon
- Ty France, 1B, SEA — 18.2% Chase%, 0.447 xwOBAcon
- Patrick Bailey, C, SF — 21.4% Chase%, 0.442 xwOBAcon
- Mitch Garver, UT, SEA — 16.1% Chase%, 0.432 xwOBAcon
- Jacob Stallings, C, COL — 21.0% Chase%, 0.429 xwOBAcon
- Michael Busch, 1B, CHC — 19.3% Chase%, 0.421 xwOBAcon
- Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT — 19.7% Chase%, 0.421 xwOBAcon
- Rob Refsnyder, OF, BOS — 21.3% Chase%, 0.419 xwOBAcon
- Nelson Velázquez, OF, KC — 23.1% Chase%, 0.414 xwOBAcon
- Jon Singleton, 1B, HOU — 24.4% Chase%, 0.412 xwOBAcon
- JJ Bleday, OF, OAK — 22.8% Chase%, 0.411 xwOBAcon
- Michael Toglia, 1B, COL — 25.2% Chase%, 0.406 xwOBAcon
- Trevor Larnach, OF, MIN — 24.6% Chase%, 0.386 xwOBAcon
Available Hitters: ≥17% Pulled Fly Ball/Line Drive Per Plate Appearance (min. 50 PA Past 30 Days)
- Enmanuel Valdez, 2B, BOS — 25.0% Pulled FBLD%
- Adam Duvall, OF, ATL — 21.6% Pulled FBLD%
- Jose Siri, OF, TB — 20.7% Pulled FBLD%
- Ryan O’Hearn, 1B, BAL — 18.2% Pulled FBLD%
- Eddie Rosario, OF, WSH — 18.1% Pulled FBLD%
- Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL — 18.1% Pulled FBLD%
- Paul DeJong, SS, CWS — 17.8% Pulled FBLD%
- Zach Neto, SS, LAA — 17.6% Pulled FBLD%
- Mike Yastrzemski, OF, SF — 17.2% Pulled FBLD%
Hidden Gem: My favorite free agent pulls have come from the second list (high xwOBAcon + low chase) all season, and I’m already on my way back to the well for Colorado first baseman Michael Toglia. Maybe it’s his dreadful demotion-earning 5-for-49 April dragging down the year-to-date stats. Perhaps it’s the Rockies’ unreliable (and sometimes seemingly irrational) implementation of playing time, but I’m shocked by Toglia’s miniscule single-digit rostership percentage. Kris Bryant’s inevitable return to the IL on June 6 opened the pathway to every-day playing time for Toglia, who’s taken full advantage in the 13 games (52 PA) since — .277 BA, 7 Runs, 12 RBI, 2 HR, 1 SB, .838 OPS, 40.6% Hard Hit, 12.5% Barrel, .449 xwOBAcon. The elevated +30% strikeout rate is concerning, but I’ve always been more lenient if it comes with a great chase rate. In roto, we want our hitters to be aggressive in the zone since walks don’t count. The 25-year-old also worked his way from the nine-hole all the way up into the fifth spot in the lineup, where counting stats should be plentiful, especially with half his games in Coors. I’ve personally added Toglia everywhere — he could be universally rostered by the All-Star break if this trend continues.
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Relief Pitchers
Targeting roles over skills is something I’ve always preached when drafting closers, but zeroing in on stat combinations like elite command plus swing-and-miss-ability could help us identify the potential next men up, especially in more vulnerable bullpens. If you want to go deeper on RPs, I also strongly suggestGreg Jewett’s weekly column— nobody does relievers better.
Relievers: >15% Swinging Strike And <34% Ball Rates (min 15 IP)
- Dylan Lee, ATL — 19.1% SwStrk, 29.8% Ball
- Griffin Jax, MIN — 17.1% SwStrk, 32.2% Ball
- Jeff Hoffman, PHI — 16.6% SwStrk, 32.9% Ball
- A.J. Minter, ATL — 15.9% SwStrk, 32.4% Ball
- Enyel De Los Santos, SDP — 15.7% SwStrk, 31.7% Ball
- Justin Slaten, BOS — 15.2% SwStrk, 33.0% Ball
- Daniel Hudson, LAD — 15.2% SwStrk, 34.9% Ball
- Matt Strahm, PHI — 14.6% SwStrk, 27.7% Ball
- Hunter Harvey, WSN — 14.6% SwStrk, 31.2% Ball
- Emilio Pagan, CIN — 14.5% SwStrk, 33.8% Ball
Top waiver wire adds by position
Catcher
- Logan O’Hoppe, LAA — +10 teams
- Patrick Bailey, SF — 10/12 teams
- Ben Rice, NYY — +12 teams
- Pedro Pagés, STL — 12/15 teams
- Miguel Amaya, CHC — +15 teams
*Hunter Goodman (COL) has played three games at catcher this week — potentially a huge value with new eligibility if he will also DH. Make sure to check your league’s rules.
First Base
- Michael Toglia, COL— +10 teams
- Andrew Vaughn, CHW — 10/12 teams
- Nolan Schanuel, LAA — +12 teams
- Joey Meneses, WAS — 12/15 teams
- Tyler Soderstrom, OAK — +15 teams
Second Base
- Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS — +10 teams
- Zack Gelof, OAK — 10/12 teams
- Spencer Horwitz, TOR — 10/12 teams
- Nick Loftin, KC — +15 teams
- Otto Lopez, MIA — +15 teams
- Austin Martin, MIN — +15 teams
Shortstop
- David Hamilton, BOS — +10 teams
- Zach Neto, STL — 10/12 teams
- Luis Rengifo — +12 teams
- Jackson Merrill, SD — 12/15 teams
- J.P. Crawford, SEA — +15 teams
- Orelvis Martinez, TOR — +15 teams
Third Base
- Michael Busch, CHC — +10 teams
- Mark Vientos, NYM — 10/12 teams
- Matt Vierling, DET — +12 teams
- Jake Burger, MIA — 12/15 teams
- Josh Rojas, SEA — 12/15 teams
- Justin Turner, TOR — +15 teams
Outfield, +10/12 Team
- Heliot Ramos, SF
- Jose Siri, TB
- Andy Pages, LAD
- Nelson Velázquez, KC
- Alec Burleson, STL
- Alex Verdugo, NYY
- Trevor Larnach, MIN
- Brenton Doyle, COL
- Jo Adell, LAA
- Bryan De La Cruz, MIA
Outfield, +12/15 Team
- Adam Duvall, ATL
- Jake Meyers, HOU
- Brent Rooker, OAK
- JJ Bleday, OAK
- Jesús Sánchez, MIA
- Jake McCarthy, ARI
- Jesse Winker, WAS
- Michael Siani, STL
- Jack Suwinski, PIT
- Rob Refsnyder, BOS
Outfield, +15 Team/Only
- Blake Perkins, MIL
- Mark Canha, DET
- Mike Yastrzemski, SF
- Tyler Freeman, CLE
- Jacob Young, WAS
- Wenceel Pérez, DET
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC
- Connor Joe, PIT
- Kyle Isbel, KC
- Andrew McCutchen, PIT
- Gavin Sheets, CHW
- Nick Gordon, MIA
- Mickey Moniak, LAA
- Leody Taveras, TEX
- Miguel Andujar, OAK
- Johan Rojas, PHI
- Kevin Pillar, LAA
- Harrison Bader, NYM
- Jonny DeLuca, TB
- Dominic Canzone, SEA
- Jake Cave, COL
- Tyler Nevin, OAK
- David Peralta, SD
- Richie Palacios, TB
- Corey Julks, CHW
Stash Candidates
Hitters
- Greg Jones, OF, COL
- Brewer Hicklen, OF, MIL
- Andre Lipcius, 2B, LAD
Jasson Dominguez, OF, NYY — Aaron Boone announced the Yankees’ outfielder will be out up to eight weeks with a “pretty significant” oblique injury. Sigh.
Starters
- Gavin Williams, CLE ^
- Matt Waldron, SD ^
- Tylor Megill, NYM
- Gavin Stone, LAD
- Taj Bradley, TB ^
- Cade Povich, BAL
- Drew Thorpe, CHW
- Simeon Woods-Richardson, MIN ^
- Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL
- Tobias Myers, MIL
- Jake Bloss, HOU ^
- Yariel Rodríguez, TOR ^
- José Soriano, LAA
- Cole Irvin, BAL
- Mitchell Parker, WAS
- Ryan Weathers, MIA
- Alec Marsh, KC
- DJ Herz, MIA
- Jonathan Cannon, CHW ^
- Michael Lorenzen, TEX
- Jake Irvin, WAS
- Chase Silseth, LAA ^
- Keaton Winn, SF
- Griffin Canning, LAA
- Hurston Waldrep, ATL
- J.P. Sears, OAK
- Ben Lively, CLE
- Albert Suárez, BAL
- Slade Cecconi, ARI
- Adam Mazur, SD
- Chris Paddack, MIN
- Joey Estes, OAK
- Colin Rea, MIL
- Trevor Rogers, MIA
- Josh Winckowski, BOS ^
- Hogan Harris, OAK
- Logan Allen, CLE
- David Peterson, NYM
- Luis L. Ortiz, PIT
- Luis Medina, OAK
- Bailey Falter, PIT
- Mitch Spence, OAK
- Roddery Muñoz, MIA
- Ryan Feltner, COL
^ — Riser/First Appearance
Relievers
- Chad Green, TOR
- Ryne Stanek, SEA
- Jeff Hoffman, PHI
- Tyler Kinley, COL
- Yennier Cano, BAL
- Justin Slaten, BOS
- Nate Pearson, TOR
- John Brebbia, CHW
- Griffin Jax, MIN
- John Schreiber, KC
- Bryan Hudson, MIL
- JoJo Romero, STL
- Daniel Hudson, LAD
- Hunter Harvey, WAS
- A.J. Puk, MIA
- Luis García, LAA
- Joe Jiménez, ATL
- Colin Holderman, PIT
- Jeremiah Estrada, SD
- Mark Leiter Jr., CHC
- Hunter Gaddis, CLE
- Luke Weaver, NYY
- Shelby Miller, DET
- Tyler Rogers, SF
- Fernando Cruz, CIN
Ranking Next Week’s Available Two-Steps
- Cade Povich, BAL — vs. CLE (Tanner Bibee) vs. TEX (Michael Lorenzen)
- José Soriano, LAA — vs. OAK (Luis Medina) vs. DET (Casey Mize)
- Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL — @ STL (Lance Lynn) vs. PIT (Bailey Falter)
- Michael Lorenzen, TEX — @ MIL (Freddy Peralta) @ BAL (Cade Povich)
- Griffin Canning, LAA — vs. OAK (Mitch Spence) vs. DET (Tarik Skubal)
- Lance Lynn, STL — vs. ATL (Spencer Schwellenbach) vs. CIN (Nick Lodolo)
- Casey Mize, DET — vs. PHI (Aaron Nola) @ LAA (José Soriano)
- Andrew Heaney, TEX — @ MIL (Bryse Wilson) @ BAL (Cole Irvin)
- Kyle Hendricks, CHC — @ SF (Spencer Howard) @ MIL (Freddy Peralta)
- Chris Flexen, CHW — vs. LAD (Bobby Miller) vs. COL (Austin Gomber)
- Luis Medina, OAK — @ LAA (José Soriano) @ ARI (Brandon Pfaadt)
- Logan T. Allen, CLE — @ BAL (Cole Irvin) @ KC (TBA)
- Patrick Corbin, WAS — @ SD (Matt Waldron) @ TB (Taj Bradley)
- Roddery Muñoz, MIA — @ KC (Cole Ragans) @ PHI (Aaron Nola)
- Bailey Falter, PIT — @ CIN (Nick Lodolo) @ ATL (Spencer Schwellenbach)
- Spencer Howard, SF — vs. CHC (Kyle Hendricks) vs. LAD (Walker Buehler)
Thanks so much for reading — the comments, feedback and overall response to the article have bordered on overwhelming. Please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below with any comments or questions. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my brand newbest-selling Substackpage for all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.
(Top photo of Michael Toglia: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports)
John is a lifetime fan and longtime analyst who crossed into content creation with his integration of technical analysis in the MLB space. He’s the man behind the @MLBMovingAvg handle on Twitter, launching the MLBMA algorithm in 2018 after having written several successful models, focused on creating the preeminent handicapping tool for fantasy baseball and sports betting. He's also the Director of MLB content at windailysports.com and will not rest until the Quality Start is fixed. Follow John on Twitter @MLBMovingAvg
